Download the Study here in English 👉: Nenuphar Advisors – LCOE_Jul_2025_v2_BESS_EN
Download the Study here in Portuguese 👉: Nenuphar Advisors – LCOE_Jul_2025_v2_BESS
🎯 Objective of the Chart
To show how much it costs, on average, to deliver firm (dispatchable) power using renewables (Solar, Wind, Solar+Storage, Wind+Storage) with capacity backup, compared to Gas Peaking and Gas Combined Cycle (CCGT) plants.
🟩 Key Takeaway (Green highlights):
✅ In ERCOT, MISO, SPP, and PJM:
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Wind + Storage and Solar + Storage often yield LCOE + Firming Cost lower or competitive with:
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Gas Peakers ($149–251/MWh)
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And often even Gas CCGTs ($48–109/MWh)
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🔍 TECHNOLOGY-BY-TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS:
1. Solar + Storage
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LCOE+Firming in MISO: ~$86/MWh
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SPP: ~$66
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PJM: ~$66
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ERCOT: ~$73
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CAISO: ~$164
📌 Conclusion: Except for CAISO, Solar+Storage is now clearly competitive with CCGTs and far cheaper than Gas Peakers.
2. Wind + Storage
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LCOE+Firming in MISO: ~$71
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SPP: ~$66
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PJM: ~$73
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ERCOT: ~$72
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CAISO: ~$144
📌 Conclusion: Wind+Storage consistently undercuts Gas Peakers and CCGTs in all markets except CAISO. MISO and SPP perform best.
3. Standalone Solar or Wind (without firming)
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Even cheaper (e.g., Wind in MISO ~$61/MWh total), but lacks full dispatchability.
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Firming cost adds only a modest premium (≈ $20–$30/MWh).
🔥 COMPARISON TO GAS:
🟥 Gas Peaking (Red circle):
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LCOE: $149–$251/MWh → Renewables + storage always cheaper, even with firming.
🟧 Gas Combined Cycle (CCGT) (Orange circle):
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LCOE: $48–$109/MWh
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Only in CAISO and PJM, renewables sometimes exceed this range (due to higher firming costs).
⚙️ OTHER IMPORTANT METRICS:
| Metric | Notes |
|---|---|
| ELCC (Effective Load-Carrying Capacity) | Higher for hybrid systems (e.g. Solar+Storage has 33–38%) |
| Capacity Factor | Higher for Wind (30–37%) than Solar (20–27%) |
| Resource Penetration | MISO: 43%, SPP: 44%, ERCOT: 61% (more renewables = more credible firming modeling) |
💡 Strategic Implications
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✅ MISO, SPP, ERCOT are now ready for baseload renewables with storage — cost-competitive AND clean.
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⚠️ CAISO has firming challenges due to over-penetration and saturation, raising costs.
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🔄 Firming cost ≠ dealbreaker anymore — in most U.S. regions, firmed renewables beat peakers and are within CCGT range.
📌 Final Takeaways
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Firmed renewables are now viable baseload in MISO, SPP, ERCOT.
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Peakers are obsolete from a cost point of view in most areas.
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Gas CCGTs are still competitive in PJM and CAISO, but barely.
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Storage is the game-changer — especially where renewables already dominate.