African renewable deal value quadrupled — capital is getting selective, not scarce
African renewable deal value quadrupled last year — from $69 million in 2024 to $275 million in 2025 — even as global renewables M&A activity fell by roughly a quarter.
That divergence tracks what we see from the advisory seat. International capital isn’t retreating from emerging and frontier markets. It’s getting more selective about which sponsors, and which SPVs, it backs.
A properly run non-binding-offer process is what surfaces that selectivity — multiple counterparties, structured technical and financial diligence, a clean data room, a timeline investors can plan around. A single bilateral negotiation rarely gets a seller the same discipline, or the same price tension.
We see the same pattern across Portugal, Spain, the UAE and our African pipeline: capital rewards development rigor over headline megawatts. A well-permitted SPV with a credible delivery plan competes for the same cheques as a far larger, less prepared one.
For developers holding early-to-mid-stage assets, that’s the practical read — the process used to find a buyer or co-investor now matters almost as much as the asset itself.
It also changes how we advise clients on timing: run the process before the market forces you to.
How is your team adjusting diligence and process design as capital gets more selective?
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