Detailed analysis of the Lazard 2025 “Cost of Firming Intermittency” in U.S.A., and comparision with Europe

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Download the Study here in English : Nenuphar Advisors – LCOE_Jul_2025_v2_BESS_EN

Download the Study here in Portuguese : Nenuphar Advisors – LCOE_Jul_2025_v2_BESS

Objective of the Chart

To show how much it costs, on average, to deliver firm (dispatchable) power using renewables (Solar, Wind, Solar+Storage, Wind+Storage) with capacity backup, compared to Gas Peakingand Gas Combined Cycle (CCGT)plants.

Key Takeaway (Green highlights):

In ERCOT, MISO, SPP, and PJM

  • Wind + Storageand Solar + Storageoften yield LCOE + Firming Cost lower or competitivewith:

    • Gas Peakers($149–251/MWh)

    • And often even Gas CCGTs($48–109/MWh)

TECHNOLOGY-BY-TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS:

1. Solar + Storage

  • LCOE+Firming in MISO:~$86/MWh

  • SPP:~$66

  • PJM:~$66

  • ERCOT:~$73

  • CAISO:~$164

Conclusion: Except for CAISO, Solar+Storage is now clearly competitivewith CCGTs and far cheaper than Gas Peakers.

2. Wind + Storage

  • LCOE+Firming in MISO:~$71

  • SPP:~$66

  • PJM:~$73

  • ERCOT:~$72

  • CAISO:~$144

Conclusion: Wind+Storage consistently undercuts Gas Peakers and CCGTsin all markets except CAISO. MISO and SPP perform best.

3. Standalone Solar or Wind(without firming)

  • Even cheaper (e.g., Wind in MISO ~$61/MWh total), but lacks full dispatchability.

  • Firming cost adds only a modest premium(≈ $20–$30/MWh).

COMPARISON TO GAS:

Gas Peaking (Red circle):

  • LCOE: $149–$251/MWh→ Renewables + storage always cheaper, even with firming.

Gas Combined Cycle (CCGT) (Orange circle):

  • LCOE: $48–$109/MWh

  • Only in CAISO and PJM, renewables sometimes exceed this range (due to higher firming costs).

OTHER IMPORTANT METRICS:

MetricNotes
ELCC(Effective Load-Carrying Capacity)Higher for hybrid systems (e.g. Solar+Storage has 33–38%)
Capacity FactorHigher for Wind (30–37%) than Solar (20–27%)
Resource PenetrationMISO: 43%, SPP: 44%, ERCOT: 61% (more renewables = more credible firming modeling)

Strategic Implications

  • MISO, SPP, ERCOTare now ready for baseload renewableswith storage — cost-competitive AND clean.

  • CAISOhas firming challenges due to over-penetration and saturation, raising costs.

  • Firming cost ≠ dealbreakeranymore — in most U.S. regions, firmed renewables beat peakersand are within CCGT range.

Final Takeaways

  1. Firmed renewables are now viable baseload in MISO, SPP, ERCOT.
  2. Peakers are obsolete from a cost point of viewin most areas.
  3. Gas CCGTsare still competitive in PJM and CAISO, but barely.

  4. Storage is the game-changer— especially where renewables already dominate.

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