Record negative-price hours are rewriting renewables M&A diligence
Spain logged 596 hours of negative day-ahead prices in the first half of 2026. Portugal logged 462. Both are records.
Read that as a market signal, not a curiosity. Record PV output across Europe is outrunning the system’s ability to absorb it, and the assets that get built through this decade will be the ones that can flex around it — storage, hybridisation, and secured grid access.
That is reshaping what we look for when we run a competitive process to match a renewables cluster with the right owner. Six years ago the pitch was megawatts. Today the diligence starts with the interconnection agreement, the flexibility of the technology mix, and how quickly a buyer can move from signed terms to construction.
We are seeing this directly in the SPV sales and acquisitions we intermediate across Portugal, Spain, the UAE and African markets: buyers increasingly price in curtailment risk before they price in yield.
It also changes how we advise sellers. A grid connection without a credible technical and financial case behind it is a permit, not an asset.
If you are underwriting renewables assets right now, how much weight are you putting on negative-price exposure versus headline capacity?
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